Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
