Just 60 days ago that the young forward was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while his coach admonished him for not reading a through-ball. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a sign or a cause for Villa's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, though, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. After the in-form star drilled in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, now sit a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, even as the victories have piled up.
Per Opta, on just two occasions has the team had an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a club which has just won ten consecutive victories, Villa look strangely fragile – yet right now the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with rivals before hoping their star man to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened versus Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opposition managed more efforts and more shots on target. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the ball into the top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is another reality where, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet find their top level.
- The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the seeds for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
However, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly back in October, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like a vital player for the national team.
This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner faced the North End after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and should be relished.
