Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
